December 9, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Excess Capacity 1.40 2.2 4-1
2 2 Mom I Forgive You 2.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 I’m Guilty 3.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Waving Flags 12.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Regal Retort 6.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Controllingthegold 15.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Queen Kantharos 30.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Wheresthebarber 0.80 3.1 6-1
5 5 Golconda 5.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Theresa’s Boy 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Killala Bay 3.00 4 8-1
8 8 Shuffling Madness 12.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Platinum Nugget 20.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Storm Alfeet 20.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Freudian Analyst 30.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5A 5 Out of Orbit 1.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 No Hayne No Gayne 3.50 3.1 6-1
6A 6 Rachel’s Blue Moon 1.00 4 7-1
4 4 Pink Twist 2.50 4 7-1
1 1 Cause We Are Loyal 4.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Peaches and Spice 10.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5A 5 Dr. Lloyd 2.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Rally Cap 3.00 2.9 5-1
3A 3 Silver Token 2.00 3 6-1
7 6 Wisecrack 12.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Center City 15.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Cause for Applause 4.50 4.6 9-1
6 5 Talespin 3.50 4.8 9-1
8 7 Wheeler Forty Five 8.00 5.7 11-1
9 8 Barrel of Stout 20.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Cariba 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Katama Moonlight 2.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Moon and Stars 6.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Mahkato 8.00 5 9-1
8 8 Birdy Num 4.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 She’s a Black Belt 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Noble Alma 12.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Cover Photo 8.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Canarsie Girl 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Durkin’s Call 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Le General 0.80 1.9 4-1
2A 2 Beachside 1.80 2.8 5-1
5A 4 Just Right 1.80 3.2 6-1
1 1 Southern King 3.50 4.1 8-1
6 5 Honorable Hero 20.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Langdarma 4.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Sanavi 1.60 3 6-1
5 5 Bon Raison 4.50 3.7 7-1
4 4 Sparty Boy 3.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Fleet Irish 12.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Shadow Rider 6.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Kerry Boy 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Southeast 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Fillet of Sole 2.00 2.2 4-1
6 5 Devine Entry 3.50 3 6-1
7 6 Baseline 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 I’m an Ocala Dude 4.00 3.9 7-1
8 7 Felix in Fabula 5.00 5.2 10-1
5 4 Appealing Henry 12.00 5.7 11-1
9 8 Gun for Hire 30.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Fun Prospect 50.00 7 13-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.