Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, August 16, 2019

August 16, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 The First Hero 15.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Marvelous Sky 5.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Penalty Shot 2.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Saturdays Hangover 4.50 3.5 7-1
4 4 French Command 15.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Trumpified 3.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 I’ve Got Issues 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Lady Furbein 2.50 3.4 7-1
3 3 Countess St Michel 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 U Turn the Page 4.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 War Beauty 1.80 3.9 7-1
4 4 Easton Empress 4.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Baylor 20.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Midnight Sway 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Appealing Audrey 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Bye Bye Bully’s 5.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Makealitlemischief 2.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Carissa Crismas 3.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Alizee 3.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Russian Mafia 20.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Touch of Disney 2.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Revolt 15.00 SCRATCH
8 6 Croce d’Oro 4.50 3.8 7-1
3 2 Consultation 3.50 3.9 7-1
5 3 Sunny’s Rainbow 12.00 3.9 7-1
6 4 Garey Park 3.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Papa Caliente 15.00 SCRATCH
7 5 Mr Haney 6.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bookie’s Blues 2.00 3 6-1
8 8 Enjoy the Journey 3.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 The Kahn 3.50 3.4 6-1
2 2 Old Fort 12.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Musical Interest 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Off to the Beach 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 First Masamune 20.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Sertoman 20.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 The Remainder 1.40 2.1 4-1
9 8 Mighty Might 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Majestic Hero 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Tommytoshort 4.50 4.4 8-1
4 4 Red Prince 20.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Party On Dude 20.00 4.9 9-1
8 7 Purr’s Along 20.00 5 9-1
5 5 Tio Chuy 8.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Bartbaalu 20.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Daddy’s Boo 3.50 3.8 7-1
8 5 Flammetta 4.50 3.8 7-1
13 8 Temple Fur 3.50 4 8-1
9 6 Lexington Grace (IRE) 12.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 Something Kinky 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Some Say So 12.00 SCRATCH
11 7 Embarrassing 5.00 6.2 12-1
7 4 Drinks On Me 8.00 6.3 12-1
3 2 Fizzy Friday (GB) 3.50 6.3 12-1
5 5 Strollin the Bayou 15.00 SCRATCH
6 3 Warrior’s Way 20.00 8.2 16-1
4 4 Ima Little Kitten 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Applique 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Ragatagtag 4.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Trophy Bridle 1.80 4.4 8-1
4 4 Ginger Snap Dance 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Hat Tip 15.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Prado’s Encore 6.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Keeneasabean 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 My Jilly 20.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Sharperthanme 8.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Kuringai 15.00 7.2 14-1
14 14 Go Yeowomen 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Canton Comet 12.00 7.6 14-1
13 13 Logi 20.00 8.4 16-1
12 12 Shes Just Capital 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Track Magic 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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