Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, August 17, 2019

August 17, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Broad Blue Line 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Bold Friends 1.60 SCRATCH
4 3 Tims Hope 4.00 3.6 7-1
6 5 Valid Storm 1.80 3.7 7-1
2 2 Pleasant Street 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Magician’s Bags 15.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Kielbasa 30.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Do Not Enter 1.60 1.7 3-1
7 5 Brother Cesare 12.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Macho Alpha 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Flyingbyu 5.00 SCRATCH
6 4 Kyzan 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 1 El Caminante 5.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Little Baltar 8.00 SCRATCH
8 6 Vbreeze 30.00 5.5 10-1
4 2 Do Guess Again 8.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Case Cracker 4.50 2.4 5-1
7 6 Pure Blarney 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Silly Factor 3.50 SCRATCH
3 2 Je Suis Belle 12.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 Odachi 5.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Rosie Bear 3.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Social Icon 6.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Word of Truth 2.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Charge Card 3.00 3.2 6-1
6 5 Sea of Makebelieve 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Amaroq 3.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Offlee Fun 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Kinsella 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Oh So Tall 15.00 5.6 11-1
8 7 Andrew the Giant 30.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Dugout 2.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Enzoexpress 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Jolly Ghaaly 8.00 SCRATCH
7 6 V Tach M. D. 4.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Hero Tiger 5.00 5 9-1
8 7 Ludington 20.00 5 9-1
6 5 Michael T 3.50 5.2 10-1
3 3 American Heritage 12.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Kool Kate 2.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Something Kinky 5.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Room to Finish 3.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Strollin the Bayou 6.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Royal Alexandra 5.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Jolee 20.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Ima Little Kitten 15.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Applique 6.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fort Marsh 2.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Point Streak 6.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Moon Over Cabo 4.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Sullyvin’s G G 4.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Superstar Diva 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Charlotte Marie 30.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Del Mar Babe 4.50 5.5 10-1
8 8 Way to Success 12.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Dusty Miller 3.00 3 6-1
3 3 Klassy Karalynn 20.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Mora Valley 6.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Thirsty Cowgirl 4.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Majestic Waters 12.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Praying for a Win 6.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Locash 30.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Dance Like Katie 12.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Polly War Cry 5.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Southern Attack 15.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Superdyne 20.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Midnight Grace 30.00 9.4 18-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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