Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, August 17, 2019

August 17, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 3 Yankee Empire 3.50 7.9 15-1
9 4 Fort McHenry 3.00 8.9 17-1
5 2 Leading West 12.00 9.5 18-1
3A 1 Market Impact 2.50 13.3 25-1
10 5 Acre 10.00 23.3 44-1
1 1 Blackberry Wine 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Anaconda 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 No Word 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 King’s Honor (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH
7A 7 Digital Software 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Break Curfew 3.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Miss Imperial 1.60 5.9 11-1
6 5 Carrizo 2.50 6.6 12-1
3 2 Figure It Out 12.00 8.6 16-1
5 4 Miss Marcela 15.00 9.2 17-1
2 2 Slimey 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 3 Game Boy Benny 8.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 High Rider 15.00 6.5 12-1
8 5 Blacktop Legend 10.00 6.6 12-1
7 4 All About It 2.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Revenio 30.00 8.2 15-1
3 3 Storm Tower 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Camouflaged Kisser 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Embellisher 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Oroscopo 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Hurricane Hill 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Giant Boo Boo 2.50 7.3 14-1
8 8 There He Goes 3.50 8.5 16-1
1 1 Blue Gem 6.00 9.9 19-1
3 3 Desert Lights 4.50 10.3 19-1
9 9 Sams Last Ghasp 8.00 11 21-1
6 6 All Clear 15.00 11 21-1
2 2 Thesis 12.00 11.6 22-1
5 5 Latin Love Bug 10.00 12.1 23-1
7 7 Dooley 8.00 12.3 23-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Local Hero 15.00 5.8 11-1
7 6 Bird’s Eye View 4.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Stella d’Oro 8.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Cape Angel 3.50 7.8 15-1
5 5 Nakamura 6.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 Devamani (FR) 1.80 10 19-1
9 7 Midnight Tea Time 8.00 14.3 27-1
6A 6 Westerland (GB) 15.00 SCRATCH
8A 8 Krewe Chief 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 7 Carotari 8.00 5.7 11-1
8 6 Sayyaaf 2.50 5.7 11-1
11 8 High Crime 6.00 7.3 14-1
12 9 Cohete Rojo 10.00 7.5 14-1
7 5 Bourbon in May 6.00 8.2 15-1
5 3 I Can Do Anything 6.00 8.5 16-1
6 4 Honey Won’t 15.00 9.7 18-1
1 1 Lonhtwist 10.00 10.1 19-1
3 2 Yamano Maker (JPN) 12.00 10.7 20-1
2 2 All Systems Go 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Alongcametheprince 50.00 SCRATCH
9 9 First Degree Burn 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Dark N Cloudy 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Candy Tycoon 2.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Cost Basis 6.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Feisty Bird 6.00 8.9 17-1
6 6 Irish Mias 2.50 9.1 17-1
8 8 African Heritage 20.00 9.8 18-1
3 3 American Butterfly 12.00 9.9 19-1
5 5 Unprecedented 8.00 11.8 22-1
7 7 Excession 15.00 14.3 27-1
2 2 Eagles Palace 10.00 14.5 27-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Smart N Fancy S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Morticia 1.00 6.1 11-1
7 5 Oleksandra (AUS) 3.50 7.5 14-1
8 6 Broadway Run 4.50 7.6 14-1
2 2 Too Much Tip 20.00 8.1 15-1
9 7 Ruby Notion 12.00 8.4 16-1
6 4 Miss Gossip (IRE) 20.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 Fire Key 4.00 9.9 19-1
3 3 Lady’s Island 0.40 SCRATCH
4 4 Lezendary 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lake Placid S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Regal Glory 2.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Feel Glorious (GB) 5.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Blowout (GB) 2.50 7.5 14-1
1 1 Varenka 3.00 8 15-1
2 2 Amandrea 15.00 8.2 15-1
3 3 Vow to Recover 10.00 8.6 16-1
7 7 Wildlife 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Team Win 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Alabama S. Presented By Nyra Bets

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ulele 8.00 6 11-1
1 1 Dunbar Road 1.60 6.1 11-1
5 5 Street Band 10.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Champagne Anyone 10.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Lady Apple 6.00 7.7 15-1
7 7 Point of Honor 2.50 7.7 15-1
8 8 Off Topic 10.00 8.7 16-1
3 3 Afleet Destiny 30.00 10.9 21-1
9 9 Kelsey’s Cross 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 More Mischief 2.50 4.6 9-1
2 2 Sweet Meadow Mist 3.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Not About the Nail 8.00 8.1 15-1
6 5 Take Me to Hardoon 5.00 8.3 16-1
10 9 Mary’s Girl 15.00 9 17-1
9 8 Trouble for Skylar 6.00 9.4 18-1
7 6 Moon Heist 10.00 9.4 18-1
11 10 Quietude 15.00 9.7 18-1
8 7 Overtime Olivia 30.00 10 19-1
1 1 Fancycase 30.00 13.3 25-1
4 4 Bustin Scones 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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