Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 14, 2019

September 14, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Isadora 2.50 2.6 5-1
6 5 Blues Mary 3.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Amazing Annie 6.00 3.4 7-1
4 3 Isabelle’s Joy 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Dance 3.50 4.2 8-1
7 6 Buywon Getwon 4.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Ginger Snap Dance 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Unite the Masses 1.80 2.6 5-1
1 1 The Kahn 2.50 2.8 5-1
4 3 Familiar Dream 5.00 3.5 7-1
7 5 Mummy Troll 4.50 3.7 7-1
5 4 Lethal Levy 20.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Party On Dude 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 French Command 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lady Warrior 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 4 Rocket Queen 3.00 2.7 5-1
8 6 Lively Spell 12.00 3.3 6-1
5 3 Good Wishes 2.50 4 8-1
3 3 Miss Galilee 10.00 SCRATCH
4 2 Social Icon 5.00 5.1 10-1
7 5 Honey Hearts 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Baylor 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 New Rules 20.00 3.3 6-1
8 6 Ozette 5.00 3.3 6-1
3 2 Hero of Gold 3.50 3.6 7-1
5 3 Detour 2.50 3.8 7-1
2 1 Be Authentic 4.50 4 8-1
7 5 All Fact 10.00 4 8-1
1 1 Me too Mo 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Lucky I Guess 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Shanghai Point 3.50 3.3 6-1
7 7 Dumbmark 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Bordini 1.80 3.8 7-1
3 3 Iker 3.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Four Left Feet 10.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Go Vo 15.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Legendary Larry 6.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Gray Mensch 15.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Columbia Clipper 10.00 2.6 5-1
5 4 Bella Linda 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 2 Poseidon’s Passion 2.50 3.2 6-1
7 6 I’m That Bird 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 1 Slime Queen 3.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Strong Mandy 10.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Girl From Berlin 5.00 4.1 8-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Touch of Disney 3.50 2.3 4-1
8 6 Little Baltar 12.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Romeo O Romeo 15.00 SCRATCH
6 4 Bootleggin 2.50 4.4 8-1
7 5 Travel West 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Zimmerman 4.50 5 9-1
9 7 Papa Caliente 5.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Landing Gear 6.00 6 11-1
4 4 Fleetway 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 10 Point Streak 20.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Meeka 15.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Looktheotherway 5.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Pure Blarney 4.50 4.8 9-1
8 8 Moon Over Cabo 5.00 SCRATCH
10 9 Midnight Sway 20.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Belle Brezing 8.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Del Mar Babe 15.00 5.9 11-1
9 8 Sky Freak 3.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Templuna 5.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Lethal Leanne 30.00 7.9 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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