Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 14, 2019

September 14, 2019 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Lord Simba 10.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Getoffmyback 2.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Professor Snape 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Discreet Angel 15.00 3.6 7-1
5 4 Orpheus (ARG) 0.80 3.6 7-1
7 6 Brimstone 30.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Chosen One Elijah 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Causforcelebration 4.50 2.2 4-1
8 8 Paynter’s Prize 5.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Big Wonder 5.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 The Happy Giant 2.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Mr. Vincent 10.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Sidd Finch 10.00 6 11-1
1 1 Millies Party Boy 6.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Blood Red Sky 30.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Storm Alfeet 50.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Local Hero 20.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Fuel the Bern 8.00 2.7 5-1
2A 2 Identity Politics 1.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Eye Luv Lulu 1.40 3.4 6-1
5A 5 Build to Suit 1.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 T Loves a Fight 5.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Saratoga Beauty 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Magnetique 4.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Adorable Maya 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Maru 3.50 3.9 7-1
7 6 Bella Rose 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Graphite Dutchess 12.00 4.7 9-1
8 7 Dancing Kiki 10.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Sweet Nazeema 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 No Regrets 4.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Rhode Island 1.80 3 6-1
11 10 Risky Sour 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 7 Honorable Hero 10.00 5 9-1
6 5 Fotis 20.00 5.6 10-1
9 8 I’m Elmer J Fudd 15.00 5.7 11-1
10 9 Scrutinize 12.00 6.1 12-1
7 6 Ninja Dust 30.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Time Expired 20.00 7.9 15-1
5 4 Fleet Admiral 50.00 8.3 16-1
4 4 Croque Monsieur (GB) 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mrs. S 2.50 1.3 3-1
1 1 Secondary Market 3.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 Octava 4.50 3.8 7-1
6 6 Gray Haze 4.50 4.1 8-1
2 2 Harlem Heights 8.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 New Day Dawning 5.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Thissmytime 8.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Indochine 1.60 2.9 5-1
11 10 Coalition Building 3.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Windfall Profit 6.00 4 8-1
2 1 Velvet Crush 15.00 4.8 9-1
7 6 Inveterate 20.00 5 9-1
10 9 Antoinette 10.00 5 9-1
8 7 Make Or Break 30.00 5.3 10-1
5 4 Scape 12.00 6.2 12-1
9 8 Trash Panda 20.00 7 13-1
4 3 Revelment 30.00 7.1 13-1
12 11 Wicked Amber 30.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Look Me Over 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Keota 2.00 3.4 6-1
5 4 Connectivity 2.50 3.6 7-1
10 9 Positive Skew 8.00 4.2 8-1
3 2 Tass 15.00 4.5 8-1
6 5 Morelikelythannot 3.50 4.7 9-1
4 3 Augusta Moon 10.00 5.2 10-1
8 7 Star Swept 20.00 7.4 14-1
7 6 Rossellini 20.00 7.6 14-1
2 1 Ideational 20.00 8 15-1
1 1 Righteous Ruby 1.60 SCRATCH
11 11 Solitary Gem 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Excess Capacity 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lutsky 0.80 2.5 5-1
7 7 Invest 3.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Amundson 4.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Bassman Dave 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 New York Hero 15.00 4 8-1
4 4 True Gold 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Foolish Ghost 20.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Pebbles S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Seek and Destroy 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Blowout (GB) 1.80 2.9 5-1
6 6 Feel Glorious (GB) 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Eyeinthesky 6.00 3.9 7-1
8 7 East (GB) 3.50 4 8-1
5 5 Passing Out 15.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Alasaayil 10.00 5 9-1
7 7 Bellera 0.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Andretta 3.50 3 6-1
2 2 Something Joyful 3.00 3.4 6-1
5 4 Shanghai Bonnie 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 3 Mike’s Girl 2.50 3.6 7-1
6 5 Bid You Adieu 20.00 5.6 11-1
8 7 Appreciate 10.00 5.8 11-1
10 9 Tradeable 12.00 6.2 12-1
9 8 Itsakeyper 15.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Overtime Olivia 30.00 6.8 13-1
11 10 Roses From Ben 30.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Eight Oaks 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Sister Emily 50.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Prairie Fire 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Party in the Sand 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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