Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 14, 2019

September 14, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Napoleon’s Empire 3.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Echelon 5.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Macho Madness 5.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Cantrell Hill 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Autumn Ruler 4.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Harpers First Ride 4.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Rayo de Luz 8.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Gaia’s Doublelatte 10.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 I’m Busy 3.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Lngtermrelationshp 3.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Grit and Glory 2.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Carte Blanche 4.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Galindo 4.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 War Veteran 10.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 10 Baudette Blizzard 4.50 2.5 5-1
7 6 Tiny Danza 8.00 3.3 6-1
9 7 Bango 4.50 3.7 7-1
3 2 Fearless Rocket 5.00 4.3 8-1
2 1 Indian Cross 4.00 4.3 8-1
5 4 Austrian 12.00 4.8 9-1
11 9 Shanghai Moon 20.00 5.7 11-1
4 3 Instigated 12.00 6 11-1
10 8 Baby White Sox 15.00 6.4 12-1
6 5 It’s Mandatory 15.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 No Ka Oi 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Deanos Cape 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Answer In 5.00 2.4 4-1
2 2 Shanghai’s Dream 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Land Grant 6.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Substantial 8.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 South Bend 10.00 4.9 9-1
13 12 Cigar Box 12.00 5 9-1
6 6 Cavalry Charge 8.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Beverly Park 6.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 November Mike 12.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Be Fierce 12.00 6 11-1
5 5 Bank 12.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Falkirk 20.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Fight Fight Fight 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Cardiac Kid 3.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Homebred 4.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Achievable 8.00 4.2 8-1
2A 2 Lonely Private 12.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 In the Deep 3.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Suggested 6.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Bama Breeze 12.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Gobarrybarry 10.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Trueno 20.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Lido Legacy 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Louwit 30.00 SCRATCH
12A 12 Jack Beanstalk 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Straight Shot 5.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Uber Kirk 4.50 4.3 8-1
9 8 Bump Bailey 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Debating 5.00 5.2 10-1
14 12 Proliferate 6.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Bourbon Calling 4.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Holly Blame 8.00 6.7 13-1
11 10 Grade One 20.00 6.9 13-1
12 11 Hidden Ruler 20.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Bebop Shoes 30.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Volatile 4.50 8.4 16-1
10 9 Breaking News 20.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 Soap Bubble 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Tio Mosco 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Open Mind S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Headland 4.50 2.7 5-1
8 6 Ascot Day 6.00 3.2 6-1
4 3 Honey Bunny 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 Awestruck 4.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Upset Brewing 12.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Divine Queen 3.50 4.2 8-1
3 3 Meadow Dance 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 America’s Tale 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Locust Grove S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mylady Curlin 2.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Escape Clause 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Moonlit Garden 4.50 4.4 8-1
6 6 Cosmic Burst 20.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Pink Sands 8.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Rose of Malibu 20.00 6 11-1
7 7 Go Google Yourself 3.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Skeptic 20.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Red Dane (ITY) 15.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Pocahontas S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Portrait 3.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Morning Gold 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Lazy Daisy 8.00 3 6-1
5 5 Blood Curdling 5.00 4.5 9-1
8 7 Lotta Ott 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 His Glory 20.00 4.8 9-1
9 8 Addilyn 15.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Shadilee 10.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 British Idiom 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Iroquois S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Lebda 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Rowdy Yates 3.50 3.4 6-1
8 8 Dennis’ Moment 1.80 3.8 7-1
1 1 Zyramid 10.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Letmeno 10.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Scabbard 5.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Flute Maker 8.00 5 9-1
7 7 Juggernaut 10.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Automate 30.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 January Won 15.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 11 Strike Appeal 5.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Continental Clash 5.00 3.9 7-1
10 9 Celtic Mischief 4.50 3.9 7-1
9 8 Hillbilly Deluxe 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Twixy Cat 15.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Sprawl 5.00 4.9 9-1
11 10 Icecap 8.00 5 9-1
2 2 Maxfield 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Ghostlore 15.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Excession 12.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Bracketologist 20.00 7 13-1
8 8 Sounion 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Social Afleet 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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