Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 15, 2019

September 15, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Thunderous Gem 4.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 What a Fox 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 I’llmakeyousmile 4.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Midnight Karma 4.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 A. P. Princess 5.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Giro Kate 4.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 War Ballad 6.00 5.6 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Brerry 3.00 3 6-1
7 7 Top of the Page 4.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Stay Home 3.50 4 7-1
5 5 Here’s Carlos 6.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 You’re Killin Me 5.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Red Clay Magic 4.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Dingdingdingding 8.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Shackleford County 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Flat Awesome Jenny 3.50 3 6-1
5 5 Alizee 2.50 3 6-1
6 6 Art Buff 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Harmony Victory 3.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Fashionablyawesome 12.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Girls Know Best 2.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Recount 2.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Satellite Storm 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Jazzy Times 4.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Imma Bling 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Afleet Ascent 6.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Tia Flor 50.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Pete’s Play Call 2.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Transatlantic Kiss 3.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Madison’s Luna 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Overzealous 3.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Stormy Pacific 3.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Mystic Tiger 2.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Jingle Me This 8.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Due to His Charm 8.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Buster Brown Boy 10.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Star Dog 8.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Sergeant McNerney 12.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Call Me Richard 8.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 El Venue 6.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Weiland 6.00 5 9-1
6 6 Eternal Force 8.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Intonation 8.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Honduras 6.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Big Al 5.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Midland 20.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Rio Bueno 15.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Frigate Fire 12.00 7.7 14-1
3 3 Mason A. P. 20.00 7.8 15-1
12 12 Just a Coinkydink 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Shakes Creek 3.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Warrior’s Lullaby 8.00 4 7-1
8 8 Commandeering 3.50 5.5 10-1
11 11 He’s No Bull 4.50 5.9 11-1
9 9 Freefall 4.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Homeview 20.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Gigging 12.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Top Mention 15.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Valycove 12.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Felipe 20.00 8.4 16-1
4 4 Town Drunk 30.00 9.1 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Fra Mauro 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Salvator Mundi 3.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Untraceable 6.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Believeinholidays 3.50 4.7 9-1
9 8 Grand Meister 30.00 5.3 10-1
7 6 Briar Jumper 5.00 6 11-1
4 4 Professional 30.00 6.1 11-1
10 9 Days of Glory 5.00 6.1 11-1
11 10 Point to Dunkirk 20.00 6.6 12-1
8 7 Hurry Back 10.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Moon Launch 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Bad Boy 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Weekly Call 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sally’s Curlin 3.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Evil Ways 12.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Diamondcoat 3.50 4.2 8-1
8 8 Tap Gun 4.50 4.2 8-1
3 3 Miz Shelton 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 True Dream 4.00 5 9-1
2 2 Beautiful Tale 10.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 I’mluckysgirl 30.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Shacklette 6.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sara Sea 10.00 3.1 6-1
3A 3 Cardamon 3.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Whimsical Muse 10.00 3.7 7-1
5A 5 Quotation 3.00 4 8-1
4 4 Getridofwhatailesu 3.50 4.5 9-1
1 1 Lesley’s Song 15.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Newellton 3.50 5 9-1
12 12 Kiss More 15.00 6 11-1
2 2 Canadian Sunset 12.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Every Single Day 12.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Sister Hanan 12.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Pretty Zippy 15.00 7.7 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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